CDC New Numbers: 78% Increase In Autism Diagnoses

And results are finally here and I bet have not surprised many. The Centers for Disease and Control reported an increase in autism of 78% in ten years. The survey followed the number of children 8-years-old diagnosed with autism in 14 locations in the United States. As autism occurs four times more in boys than in girls, the number is 1 in 88 for boys and 1 in 252 for girls. 

Part of the increase was attributed to an increase in diagnoses among some minorities, but as a result of changes in the social equality gap, not a real increase in the prevalence of autism within these groups. 

They also reported that the diagnoses are not occurring as early as possible for children born between 1994 and 2000. This should change over the next decade given the increase in awareness and access to services in the last decade, even more than before, which already contributed to this increase. How much is unknown.

The methodology was not perfect, of course. Among other things, the locations surveyed are not representative of their own States and are not representative of the United States as a whole. 

Important statement and not to be forgotten, as one can imagine that immediately these data will be turned and twisted, that is, interpreted, in so many ways (and this is not to diminish the seriousness of the data and the urgency of the situation):

"The proportion of the increase that is attributable to such changes in case ascertainment or attributable to a true increase in prevalence of ASD symptoms cannot be determined." 

It is not possible to say how much of the increase should be attributed to a real increase in incidence (there would be more children who actually meet the diagnosis of autism than in the previous decade; the ratio increased truly) and how much of the increase could be attributed to effects of increased dissemination about autism and access to services (the same proportion of kids would have autism but more would have been diagnosed and captured in the survey; children would have been missed versus not met criteria for the diagnoses before).


As The New York Times said:


"But no one knows whether the increase shows that the disorders are more common or whether it simply reflects better detection of cases that would previously have been missed."

New Jersey and Utah again had the most cases:

Regarding intellectual disability:

The two sites with the highest proportions of children classified above the range of intellectual disability (IQ >70) were Utah (87%) and New Jersey (73%). In all seven sites reporting data on intellectual ability, a higher proportion of females with ASDs had intellectual disability compared with males, although the proportions differed significantly (52% for females and 35% for males; p<0.01) in only one site (North Carolina).

The report concludes mentioning the difficulties that will be encountered in the next survey after the diagnostic criteria will have changed, after the DSM-V.